Viglink

Friday, February 19, 2010

Leading Indicators Show Different Trends

I am looking at the leading indicators from two different sources:
First one is the the Conference Board's Leading Indicator Index (LEI) that was released yesterday. This index comprises of 10 different components with different weights:

i) Average Weekly hours, manufacturing
ii) Average weekly unemployment claims
iii) Manufacturer's new orders, consumer goods and materials
iv) Index of Supplier deliveries
v) Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods
vi) Building Permits
vii) Stock Prices
viii) Money Supply, M2
ix) Interest rate spread, 10-yr Treasury less federal funds rate
x) Index of Consumer expectations

This US Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been on a roll since Jan-09. It increased 0.3 percent in January'10, following a 1.2 percent gain in December'09, and a 1.1 percent rise in November'09 - all painting a rosy picture.


On the other hand, if I look at the ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (WLI), I see the index topping out almost a month ago. In fact, the index has dropped 2.9% since it's top from the week ending Jan 15th 2010. The index released today dropped 1.2% from last week suggesting continued weakness.
Only time will tell if this is a temporary blip in an otherwise upward trend or the beginning of a new downtrend. Let's keep watching!

No comments: